On July 26, 2026, the international spot gold market witnessed a historic moment - London gold quotes broke through the $2,500/oz mark, reaching a high of $2,520 and finally closing at $2,515, an increase of 2.3%. This is the first time gold prices have stood at the $2,500 integer level, marking a new phase for the global gold market. Multiple favorable factors resonated, making gold one of the best-performing asset classes in 2026.

Global central banks actively purchase gold, providing solid support for gold prices

The latest data from the World Gold Council shows that global central banks' net gold purchases reached 280 tons in the second quarter of 2026, a year-on-year increase of 35%. Among them, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month, reaching 2,450 tons by the end of July; Russia, Kazakhstan, India and other countries also continued to increase their holdings. Analysts point out that central bank gold purchases not only directly drive physical demand but also send a clear signal of de-dollarization and asset diversification to the market.

Geopolitical risks heat up, safe-haven funds pour in

Recent tensions in the Middle East have flared up again, the Ukraine crisis continues to simmer, coupled with escalating global trade frictions, investors' risk aversion has reached an unprecedented high. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold's appeal has significantly increased. According to Bloomberg data, global gold ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $8 billion in July, the largest single-month inflow since 2020. Institutional investors have increased their gold allocation ratios to hedge against potential risks.

Inflation and interest rate expectations remain favorable for gold

Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its July meeting, inflation data remains above the 2% target. U.S. June CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year, with core PCE at 2.9%, both exceeding expectations. Real interest rates continue to be negative, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan also maintain an accommodative stance, and the scale of global negative-yielding bonds has expanded again, prompting funds to seek store-of-value tools, with gold becoming the top choice.

Outlook: Multiple investment banks raise target prices

Major investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley promptly raised their gold price forecasts. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2026 target from $2,400 to $2,800, citing that the global central bank gold buying spree may continue for years and expectations of a weaker dollar index are increasing. Citibank is more aggressive, believing that under extreme scenarios gold could hit $3,000. However, some analysts caution that excessive short-term gains may trigger a technical correction, but the medium- to long-term uptrend remains unchanged.

  • Supporting factors highlights: Optimization of central bank gold purchases, recovery of retail demand in China and India, and limited production by mining companies.
  • Potential risks: The Fed unexpectedly turns hawkish with significant rate hikes, and geopolitical conflicts ease leading to fading risk aversion.

For ordinary investors, chasing highs now requires caution, but they may consider phased position building or participation through gold ETFs, gold coins, and other instruments. The gold market vane has clearly pointed to bullishness, and every pullback could be an opportunity to enter. VNFUND Asia Finance will continue to track gold price movements, providing you with first-hand market interpretation and investment strategies.